by Alan Murphy (Founder, RoundTrip Foundation)

 

Had your jabs, so now you are fully vaccinated against the coronavirus.
Well done, you are amongst about 25% of the world’s population that has thus far been vaccinated.
Now you are over that hurdle, is your mind wandering to travel? Time for an adventure?
But what about the other 75%, or at least the proportion of unvaccinated people living in poor countries?
Places where where the vaccines are not so readily available.

 

Well, the desire to travel is certainly understandable, I know I have really missed it – here in Australia our international borders are still closed. However, we need to recognise that the world is now a different place as travellers start to question some fundamentals that in pre-covid times were taken for granted.

For example, is it okay for a vaccinated person to travel in countries with high numbers of unvaccinated local people – unvaccinated because those countries didn’t have the money or the political clout (or sometimes even the interest) to secure vaccines for their population? And what if you were responsible for accidentally transmitting the virus to the local population because you had become infected, even though you were fully vaccinated?

 

Emerging from a Global Pandemic

As we trundle toward 70% to 80% of the adult population getting vaccinated and herd immunity, we will slowly into a post-pandemic world – the development of highly effective vaccines has changed the outlook and prospects of billions of people in the fight against covid-19, and in particular the Delta variant.

I doubt very much that life will return to ‘normal’ but rather, it will assume a ‘covid normal countenance’. Australia’s international borders have been closed for a loooooong time (since March 2020) and we are getting itchy feet down here! Countries ahead of us in the vaccination race, namely the US and much of Europe, have shed restrictions designed to slow down/halt transmission of the coronavirus and are setting the pace for the rest of the world: summer holidays are back in fashion, and countries such as the UK have dropped all covid-era restrictions. Here in Australia, we watch with bated-breath at the success of these confident moves.

It is too early to call out ‘success’ or otherwise at what is happening overseas. But we can make some generalisations, drawn from the mounting data of new studies, and our growing knowledge of the Delta variant. Firstly, and very importantly, the vaccines are proving to be incredibly effective, especially in their first 8 months.  In whatever situation with whatever variant, a vaccinated individual is far less likely to require hospitalisation or die from covid-19.

 

An Ethical Dilemma

So then, what about the all-important transmissibility of the virus…the subject of this article….”I’m vaccinated, protected from the really serious outcomes of covid,  but can I still get infected and pass it on to others?” The short answer is yes, you can. So then, the important question becomes… how likely is it I will become infected, and if I do become infected, how likely is it that I will pass it onto a local if I travelled to and around country X.

Does this present an ethical dilemma for you? It does for many of us – there are no clear and definitive solutions. But surely putting yourself in a position where transmitting the virus (albeit unknowingly) to unvaccinated people in a place where vaccines are unavailable, and local healthcare is limited, warrants some serious reflection and the acquisition of relevant data as it is released. The dilemma can be neatly summed up as: Travel in unvaccinated countries: another form of exploitation, or doing people a favour?

It’s worth keeping in mind that when I say ‘unvaccinated countries I am referring largely to the developing world and those countries that cannot afford vaccines.’ In Africa, for example, less than 5% of the continent’s population has been vaccinated. Poor countries are relying on the wealthy to send vaccine supply, which up to this point has been patchy. A lot has been promised by the West but not enough has been delivered.

 

One Side of the Dilemma

Back to the ethical dilemma, so on one side of the issue people argue that local economies have taken a pounding in countries that rely heavily on international tourism for much needed cash. Such places have often had their borders shut for the best part of the last 18 months, while the virus has been raging around the world. And even if they kept their borders open, international visitors were reduced to a trickle.

Good examples are countries in East and southern Africa. It is estimated that Africa’s safari industry is worth about US$12,4 billion, and that includes many small to medium size businesses completely incapable of dealing with a catastrophic fall in international tourist numbers, and therefore their modest revenue. Most tour operators have seen more than 75% of their business fall away, and most employ people from their local community. Such communities and countries are crying out for the return of tourists to their shores. The pandemic has crushed many smaller operations and put many, many people out of work.

On the local economies side of the dilemma, the argument is pretty clear…giving places a much needed economic boost by spending your tourist dollars there could benefit a lot of people. And proponents of this argument point out that local restrictions – such as social distancing and mask-wearing – should still be adhered too, along with the govt corona rules of the country. And finally, visitors should take a rapid antigen test before they cross the border/board the flight to check that they are not infected with covid (it should be noted that this is not a definitive method of determining whether someone is infected with covid-19).

 

Second Side of the Dilemma

The other side of the dilemma depends largely on science from health studies that is still emerging. Here is what we know so far based on the most recent studies regarding the Delta variant:

• Although a huge success and stopping people from requiring hospitalization and even dying, the vaccines do not provide 100% cover from covid infection. And most recently in Israel and now in the UK, the efficacy of the vaccines has been found, through large scale studie,s to be dropping markedly (especially Pfizer) after about 6 to 8 months of being double jabbed. This increases the vulnerability of a vaccinated person becoming infected if exposed to the Delta variant (although even with the decreased efficacy it is still far more likely that an unvaccinated person will become infected with covid).
• If a vaccinated person does become infected, one of the main factors influencing whether he/she will readily transmit the virus is the viral load they carry – that is, the amount of the virus in the nose and throat of infected people. It was assumed vaccinated people that did become infected would have a much lower viral load. However, a recent UK study has shown that vaccinated people carry the same amount of viral load as unvaccinated people when it comes to Delta, meaning they potentially could transmit the virus to others just as easily.
• Other things to consider before booking your flights: the risk of coming up against a new variant, or a variant that has not been active in the traveller’s home country; the burden you will place on local healthcare if you do fall sick. And the risk of bringing such a new variant home.

 

Helping Local Economies

A further consideration is…the amount of money that goes into local economies will depend very much on the type of trip you take. On an organized tour you should ask your tour operator about this. Some have very good programs to give back to the local communities that they spend time in, whereas with others, notably larger operations, most of your money can end up overseas.

The real point though is…if you want your money to help out local communities in a given country or region, you don’t need to go there as a tourist. There are other ways to give back and help local economies. For example, you could research a worthy organisation doing great work in a field that interests you, in the country you had your eye on to visit, and make a donation. That way you can make a targeted, grassroots contribution that really helps out.

 

To Travel or Not to Travel?

Ideally, it would be great if you could ask local people what they think, and get a general consensus on whether they wanted you, a fully vaccinated Westerner, visiting their country and their community. But that is hard to do – you could ask your tour operator if you were preparing for an organized tour. However, he/she is likely to tell you it’s fine, they are hardly going to discourage you from booking their services….so, try to drill down a bit to understand what they are specifically doing to keep the people around you safe.

Lastly, think about your motivation for wanting to travel. Are you going because you are sick of all the restrictions in your own country and you just want your freedom back?  Do you use the excuse of helping local economies by bringing back tourism…but you rarely if ever explore possibilities of investing money in local economies when (or after) you travel? Do you really believe there is a benefit and no/very minimal risk to travel in a largely unvaccinated country?

And remember…..until herd immunity against covid is achieved and studies return sufficient evidence that vaccinated people do not spread the virus many epidemiologists (especially in the US) believe people should avoid any situation (including travel) where you could get infected.

When weighing up a decision about travel to a poor country, go through the pros and cons, and keep upto date with the latest science from recent peer-reviewed studies. Importantly, find out how well the country you are visiting is coping with the pandemic, and find out the rules regarding local restrictions.

And please remember, if you do decide to travel…even in the best of times your trip should actively benefit the communities you’re going to visit…in the current times ,in our opinion, you should not travel unless you are prepared to give back to the local communities which you will be visiting/travelling through. So, please make an informed choice….and make a good decision…

 

 

Source Material      

The following is a non-exhaustive list of sources used for this blog post:

American Association for the Advancement of Science  https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/grim-warning-israel-vaccination-blunts-does-not-defeat-delta

AP News 

https://apnews.com/article/science-health-coronavirus-pandemic-d9504519a8ae081f785ca012b5ef84d1

BBC News 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-58245285

Covid-19 Data Science 

https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated

The Globe and Mail 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-people-who-are-fully-vaccinated-have-high-potential-of-spreading-covid/

The New York Times 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/03/well/live/covid-delta-variant-vaccine-symptoms.html

https://www.nytimes.com/article/covid-breakthrough-delta-variant.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/18/world/middleeast/israel-virus-infections-booster.html

The Washington Post 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/tips/vaccinated-travel-ethics/